Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Tesla has almost caught Ford

     Given its run-up in the last few weeks, Tesla's market capitalization is within a hair's breath of Ford.  (Note, however, that market capitalization is not enterprise value because it is based only on equity value.)  This run-up, once again, has occurred without there being any meaningful fundamental news.  What has soared, is what has soared in the past, belief that Mr. Musk is about to deliver something sensational.  This time, however, there may be finally be a resolution.  As the year, wears on Mr. Musk will either produce the Model 3 and sell it at a profit or he will not.  For the first time in its history, Tesla will begin to trade, at least in part, on the basis of its actual financial performance, not its future growth options.  When it does so, I still find it hard to believe it will command a market cap equal to that of Ford.  But we shall see.

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