Wednesday, March 15, 2017

This Time is Different

        Though attempting to time the market is hazardous at best, there is one guide I use - the notion that "This time is different."  I take this as a guide because in my view it virtually never is.  In the depths of the depression and the during the crash of 2008/2009, many people thought the world had changed for the worse.  In 2000, it was the reverse - the world was changing for the better.  In retrospect, it was not changing very much at all.  From my standpoint, it is reasonable to be wary about the Trump rally for the same reason.  Rationalizing the high current level of stock prices because President Trump is going to deliver to a new world of tax reform and reduced regulation is an exercise in what I believe is undue optimism.  The status quo is much stronger than most people give it credit for.  So when you hear, the phrase "this time is different" the best reaction is generally no its not.  And the best investment advice as well.

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